It’s this time of the year for prediction posts. How the motorcycle industry landscape will look in 2009? Will Harley-Davidson sell more or less bikes? Will Big Dog Motorcycles still be the leader of the mass produced custom motorcycles segment? What style of bikes custom builders are going to favor? Will some new medias appear, disappear? Will the OCC trio decide to retire? What new regulations EPA & CARB will try to enforce? What will be the next big idea for a new part? Will the Spring Myrtle Beach Rally forever disappear? Will the Harley-Davidson Bruce Rossmeyer’s empire be bought by Disney? Etc. Tell me your predictions for 2009. Humor accepted. We need it.
24 Responses to “Can You See Motorcycle Future?”
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I predict that people will start buying bobbers so they can turn them into cool custom motorcycles by chopping the frame and adding a longer front end so they look more like choppers. This new custom motorcycle trend will be known as the
“Chobber”
Almost overnight new shops and manufacturers will be born using this new term as part of their company name.
Eventually as supply exceeds demand low quality imported “Chobber” parts will be readily available on E-Bay at bargain basement prices.
That’s my prediction for the first quarter of 2009. For the rest of the year I’m adopting a “wait and see” approach.
I predict that Angelina Jolie is going to adopt all children from Tchad. That Paul Jr. is going to have a baby who will belong to all new episodes, screaming louder than his grandpa Paul Senior. That Daytona Bike Week will have an Only Women Bike show. That we will see the return of the big SUV’s to pool neighbors going to the same unemployment agency. That riding a 2009 Indian will be a fashion statement for the richest. That scooter owners will start to customize their rides and create a new after-market parts industry. That Harley will sell more abroad than in the US. That Easyriders Magazine will want to buy Cyril’s Blog.
Harley will become the worlds largest selling motorcycle in 2009 with their new 135 cc freon cooled engine.
Big dog will introduce thier new stretched 12 ft forks on a bike that will not fall over introducing the safety enhanced frame with a 12 volt gyro installed in the oil tank.,
The latest and greatest innovations in blke design will include four foot running boards for those who run out of fuel and when they run out of fuel, they can use the bike as a scooter to get to the filling station.
The OCC trio will most likely retire this year, when the local TV gossip show finds the three of them in the closet together arguing over who has the biggest stick.
EPA: Will require governors on all motorcycles by October for they are too fast.
CARB : Will “not require” the governor to have motorcycle endorsements.
The next great invention [new part] will be a bike without handle bars and incorporates a joy stick in its place
Rumor has it that the Myrtle Beach Rally is moving to the top of Lookout Mountain in Tennessee.
Will the Harley-Davidson Bruce Rossmeyer’s empire be bought by Disney? Yes, this is correct. The last time that I passed by Rossmeyer’s, they were installing a merry-go-round with all the latest Harley models and removing the horses. Just a lot more bling than the horses could provide and the ferris wheel will be the largest in the United States. I understand that you can see it from the front steps of Daytona Beach City Hall.
Honda will dominate the “production chopper” market with the release of the Fury which will force Big Dog and Harley both to produce American made scooters to offset the losses.
Ridley bikes will be the largest growing manufacturer.
Custom baggers will continue to be the trend among custom builders especially chopping and lowering the Victory Vision.
Liberal run government will crack down on decibel levels and the used stock exhaust market will soar on Ebay.
Obama will show up at a local HOG rally riding a metric bike and not understand what’s wrong.
Sturgis will officially become a family event and the biggest attraction will be their motorcycle themed waterpark.
Fools like Scott will keep buying Easyriders and Willie G toilet paper.
Harley-Davidson will continue to pump out overweight parade floats.
More American than ever will buy a new Ducati.
* Harley Daidson will make a “SVU Change” model Street Glide honoring Barack Obama and give him Ser # 000001 as a thnak you for the billion dollar bailout they are going to need.
*On Tuesday America will wake up and realize how really boring the OCC bunch really are and universally stop watching the trash they cal reality TV.
* The EPA will enact even stricter emission standards that will require motorcycles to emit no harmful gasses. Honda will counter with an all electric motorcycle. Harley will introduce a water/hydrogen based 2000cc V-rod.
* Indian will go bankrupt,,,,,,,, again.
* Choppers will go out of style. Speedway racers will be all the rage.
* HD and Big Dog will be the only US motorcycle manufacturers still in business at the end of 2009.
*The new CEO of Harley Davidson will be a woman.
* There will be a “women only” rally town during the Black Hills Rally 2009.
*All the girls will keep their breasts covered during Datona Bike Week.
Sad predictions, but sombody had to say it.
Happy New Year to All, Thanks for hosting this forum Cyril. It’s always entertaining.
I think that more motorcycles will be sold in 2009, I would expect Sportster sales to go through the roof. People (I hope) will see the practical value and economy in owning a motorcyle along with the feeling of going down the road with only your imagination to limit you on where you can go on it. Little off topic but I would encourage everyone to watch “On Any Sunday” over the New Years weekend, that movie always puts a smile on my face. I am still enthusiastic about that movie today as I was when I was a kid. I think that watching that this weekend with some friends and chowing down on some munchies and your favorite drink(s) would be a great (and positive) way to start 2009…
If a global economic melt-down is avoided:
The MC industry trends in the US will follow the demographics. As the Boomer population curve crests into retirement, so will bagger sales.
The leading edge of Boomerdome, who grew up in the 50’s will revert to the nostalgia. For those who remember riding with Dad or uncle Bob, they’ll seek the leisurely pace of tank-shifting and foot-clutching classics and repros. For those without an “attachment” or kick-starting-grit, who only want to participate in nostalgia, they’ll be buying the new Indians, Crockers…. etc. But, as that demographic wains, so will that market. And the prices will be a limiting factor.
The emerging market will be based on Skateboarding and MX bike riding kids that will gravitate to sport bikes. Extreme stunt bike riders will look for affordable (crash-able) sports bikes and street trackers and posers will copy-cat-buy. The nostalgia seekers in that bunch will pay a premium for Duhammel replicas (like their predecessors did for Eddy Lawson Kawasaki replicas). The good news here is that riding skill will re-emerge as a dominant issue. The bad news is that those same skill limitations will also limit the market.
Environmentalists will increasingly close off land to dirt bikers, forcing them into street tracking events in parking lots. As the local oval tracks and MX parks close all over the country, parking lot racing will emerge.
If the Global economy does collapse into a depression, look to history.
History will come full circle.
Few manufacturers will survive. Fad-motorcycling will become extinct. Utilitarian motorcycling will grow/
We’ll see the reemergence of the motorcycle Gypsy, tradesmen and craftsmen who travel the country to apply their skills and crafts where they are needed. As they were in the 20’s they will be in the 2ks, the true 1% of bikers who Eat, Dream, Breath, Live and Love Motorcycling, not because they want to “be somebody,” but because that who they are, 24/7.
The scooter shop, that survive will do so on a very consolidated customer base. They’ll need to supplement their income. That customer base will not be full of posers or easy marks. A predominantly knowledgeable customer base will be picky and seek value, A reputable MC industry will survive. The rest will blow away like the dust in Grapes of Wrath.
-nicker-
In order to induce sales, Harley mandates dealers to serve each and every walk-in chocolate truffles and aroma therapy;
Harley goes green by recycling their CDO paper into toilet paper, thus increasing its’ value 190%;
It’s uncovered that Harley’s sugar daddy for the past year has been Bernie Madoff- every investment banker in the country is forced to pawn their Harley the next day, Ebay listings balloon 3900%….. Buyback Sportster program goes in the toilet when people realize they can pick up a blinged-out Road King with 400 miles on it for $2500;
In an attempt to diversify, Harley leaps into the fat-margin ATV market- the Hedge Hog is born…….(wait- this is actually a pretty good idea- Willie G, send my royalties!)
$30 million and 8 months of intense R&D results in three new colors for the ’10 models- the women swoon……
Also for the ’10 models, a giant hinge is engineered into the swingarm of the Touring bikes after complaints that the last 5 fixes have made the bike too boring to ride……
bikers will ride…builders will build..posers will pose..nothing will change. baggers will still be hot..bobbers will still be fun..girls will still be taking their tops off..daytona will still happen sturgis will happen..other events will come and go..friends will share the road…good friends will share the jail cell…just never forget the reason for our whole industry freedom..fun..luaghs…hard work..and joy of helping a brother..creating a bike someone loves…fixing a flat for a long distance traveler on a sunday when your closed..recieving a xmas present from germany becuase you fixed the guys flat on a sunday..its a brotherhood…some people sell it some people live it very few get it….if you dont i hope you soon do.
A happy and prosperous new year to all, especially you Cyril. Thanks for the blog, the info, the cool parts, and providing us a credible platform to comment on motorcycles as a passion and/or an industry.
Blevins-Jones U.S.A.
Amen….
to a1 cycles
Here’s some positive news for Panhead builders :
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Quote: We are in the process of making correct rear header pipes for Pan and Knuckles. http://www.carlscyclesupply.com/
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This is great news. I wonder what Mfgr. brand their rear header will fit which “Y” and flatpipe and front header? The Dennis Corso® group of pipes or the Dixie® set of pipes ❓ Exhaust systems for rigid Pans are one of the hard to fit parts.
Dennis Corso told me more than once, that, “We made that rigid Pan 10” “Y” pipe in 1972 patterned off an OEM “Y” pipe. (When I questioned him about the seemingly great amount of “kick” in the tail piece and how that kick sets the direction for the muffler, and on my rigid Pan, sent the muffler upswept from the true horizontal OE position.)
Great news that someone else is going to take a crack at making pipes that fit.
Hope Carl’s Cycle puts (4) compression slots in the bell of the header and not just (2).
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2009 will be a great year for motorcycles. Panheads are going to stay strong.
The landscape of the motorcycle industry will look somewhat like the landscape around the Mars rover, a few rocks but mostly barren.
H-D will sell a few bikes and get bought out by AMF again.
Big Dog will find out that Custom and Mass-Produced doesn’t belong in the same sentence.
( Copied from previous thread )
Media will appear and disappear.
OCC won’t retire, they will file Chapter 11 to unload the World Headquaters.
EPA & CARB will hunt me down and sentence me to life in prison for pipes that surpass 140 decibels.
All of the big ideas and new parts are a reinvention of parts that have already been tried and don’t work.
Nobody cares about Myrtle Beach.
I guess it would be better to get bought by Disney than AMF.
Nicker: Right on !
Fausto: That Chobber bit was great !
a 1-
Good read.
RE:
“… very few get it…”
Spot on!
And its those who “do”……. they are the ones worth talking to.
Keep talking Dude…… 🙂
-nicker-
The new Harley Davidson Shampoo will outsell the Japanese shampoos because it leaves your hair softer and with more body.
The EPA will extend their regulatory oversight to bicycles by requiring a CO2 sensor somewhere near the mouth of the rider to monitor emissions of said pollutant while pumping hard to climb hills.
Harley will acknowledge that the 110″ Screaming Eagle Engine, in all of its emissions belabored beauty, just ain’t the motor that you can foresee rolling up 75,000 problem free miles.
Harley salesmen will fianlly acknowledge that they think they heard something about some guy having a problem with the 110″ engine.
The Dieselator, Harley’s new V-Twin Diesel engine, will crowd the showrooms once again with its ground-pounding torque, 95 miles per gallon, and damn fine exhaust note.
Finally, Myrtle Beach will recall all the damn fool politicians that decided to chase a crowd of 400,000 cash spending bikers out of town during one of the worst economic downturns ever.
The Myrtle Beach Rally will continue, it may be downsized but WE and the beach are not going anyware! So come on down ya all!
Cyril..and all you out there, Happy New Year and let’s all be optimistic for 09
The crystal ball is a little smokey but I see a light in its depths. Its getting brighter ,I see revelation !
This IS the FUTURE !!!!
Harley Davidson will remain king of the American V-Twin Hill ,mostly because of overseas sales that will save its ass. Big Dog will remain a distant second place player mostly because of sheldons cash and ego. American Iron Horse will flap its wings but never get the speed to go wheels up. Belly up most certain. Small independent shops will persevere but probably with help from a second night job. Hey it is what it is! Small parts manufacturers will slowly phase out or diversify their CNC talents to maybe green machine technology ( like a lettuce powered scooter).
Paul Jr Will attempt to take out senior on the TV set sticking him in the tube bender to see if he can give him a radiused back bone! Good entertainment ! For that I’d probably would start watching them again! Oh and pauly gets invited to the first season show of Nip Tuck as the docs try to figure out a way to make him stop looking like a piglet! Tedd’s V-Twin will introduce their total Taiwan made V-Twin line complete with owners manual in mandarin with tiny hardly readable sub instructions in english. Big Letters Wahwentee? no understand english ,understand nowahwentee! Fuchuamelican. Wait I have to stop for a minute to catch my breath because I’m here on New Years Eve all by myself writing dis chit and crackin myself up! Good thing the tequila is close by! The Victory vision gets even more of a revamping by Arlen Ness . Cory takes it out for a test ride and because of their even more swoopy aerodynamics cause the vision to actually acquire a liftoff at 80mph! Holychit mahn! Arlen last saw his son flying over San Diego at about 10,000 feet ! He did have his bluetooth on and was telling his dad that he is too scared to do a successful reentry. Arlen tells him hey it was your design u figure it out. Ah the sins of the son shall not botha the fatha! And on that note my friends I shall bid you all a good night ,have a safe and happy NEW YEAR ! Keep laughin it really works !
I predict Vinny and Cody will come back to OCC, but they will have to start at the bottom… Vinny getting coffee for senior, and Cody being Mikey’s assistant. OCC will build a new world HQ after they decide the one they have now is not big enough.
Hmmmm………………………………………………………………A1 cycles good.
I predict less money in my pocket but WAY more fun in 09! IT’S ADVENTURE MAN!!!!!!! peace
Just got the new issues of Motorcyclist and CycleWorld. If you haven’t seen them yet, their vision for 2009 appears to be dominated by Ducatis and custom Gixxers. Before you proclaim that the end is nigh, you need to check out the new BMW concept bike, as well as the CLEAR wheels on one of the custom ‘Busas….
A 1 Cycles has the correct answer.
Have a great new year.
I predict that the owners and employees of American Ironhorse Motorcycles, as well as Charles Strand and his staff will throw a large bike rally during which anyone promising to buy one of their bikes will get to tea bag each of them for free.
I also predict that after the bagging, everybody will just leave without actually buying a bike.
This will make the Ironhorse employees sad, but Charles Strand (or should I say Miguel?!?!? http://triptronix.net/ishbadiddle/archives/2006/02/24/11.09.27/#reply20080206172352 ) will still have a smile on his face.