2010 Analysts Prediction. Down Year Ahead For Harley-Davidson. Recovery Near.

Although Wall Streeters don’t have a magic crystal ball, it’s always interesting to read what the pundits think of the Harley-Davidson stock (HOG). 75% of analysts agree on the following: In a survey of 70 dealers the retail market remains soft, with factors such as high unemployment and bad weather to blame, dealers expect to sell between 28,000 and 30,000 bikes in the first quarter of 2010, down 30 percent from 2009, which was (relatively) a strong quarter for Harley. The stock is rated “outperform” by many analysts citing the fact that Harley-Davidson’s management team has taken aggressive steps to refocus the company in the face of falling demand for its high end bikes and that the company 2009 reorganization of its business, (laying off employees, closing factories, closing Buell, selling MV Agusta) should pay off at the end of the year.

11 Responses to “2010 Analysts Prediction. Down Year Ahead For Harley-Davidson. Recovery Near.”

  1. 1 Daniel Mar 2nd, 2010 at 10:49 am

    Let’s all pray for Harley.

  2. 2 fuji Mar 2nd, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    So which annalist does one listen to or believe in.

    One of the companies identified as having poor earnings quality, and its quarterly and historical average ranked score, based on our accruals variable. HOG currently sits in the ” worst 20% ” of companies in the AFG universe [ American Financial ] (AFG based on accrual rank, as they have been moving down the ranks of worst EQ companies since Q2 2007. [copied as quoted Feb 24 ]

    Many say that they believe in HOG , all well and good and HOG will return.
    Not being a daily money manager I prefer stocks that pay dividends.
    Checks are good. Checks pay the bills HD religion doesn’t.

  3. 3 J Mar 2nd, 2010 at 3:30 pm

    You’re on the money, Fuji- the fact is, these analysts have a fundamental bias towards recommending Harley- Harley does plenty of investment banking business, which the companies that employ these analysts hope to score a piece of;

    It’s a fraud, really- whether you’re watching some analyst on CNBC, or talking to Harley directly- they ALL have vested interests. No one in this equation is in a position to be benevolent, so there really should be more clarity regarding this nonsense. These aren’t “analysts”- they’re pimps.

    The clear fact is, any business that has sales down 30% year over year has a shitload of worries, and no sane person would ever suggest that Harley- with its huge debt load- is in a position to outperform anything;

    The fact is, these numbers come AFTER Harley has done their 2009 restructuring, and Harley is no doubt straight-lining their 2010 projections to analysts- good luck with that in a stalled economy!

    I’d like to see what 70 dealers they contacted- cause my two dealers would have less than rosey news to report to anyone that really listens- lol.

  4. 4 MDK Mar 2nd, 2010 at 6:32 pm

    I say sell that HD stock and pick up some Polaris stock!

  5. 5 fuji Mar 2nd, 2010 at 9:09 pm

    J and MDK .
    you are dead on.

    Just as Jeff Nicklus proclaimed not to long ago that Polaris and PII stock is moving forward.

    Polaris Industries, parent company of Victory Motorcycles, announced that it has acquired engine specialists swissauto Powersports.

  6. 6 Dangerous Donna Mar 3rd, 2010 at 12:22 pm

    Yea of little faith, Harley is an American Icon. Harley is an American Status Symbol internationally. Europeans would love to get their butts on a Harley. Stop and think how long Harley has been around and all the movies and shows that are focused around this icon. Also, do you love your bike? Or are you ready to push it aside and buy another brand? My Harley is customized and designed just right for my line of business. I like it very very much. So think about all the emotion involved sitting on a Harley, looking at a Harley and speaking about a Harley. That will not dry and fade away very easily. The stock is performing on emotion like the the rest of market. Many companies are seeing tough times. I am buying as much stock as I can. Let’s talk in 2011!

  7. 7 J Mar 3rd, 2010 at 1:49 pm

    Umm, no Donna- the stock is performing because if you look at the balance sheet, it’s pretty obvious that Harley has problems. You’re the one trading on emotion, and wishing and hoping that something will go up because you loved the way it looked 10 yrs ago is sweet, but will make you go broke every time (learned that one with my ex wife….).

    It’s just business, Donna- Harley has been doing some stupid things financially, and they finally caught up to them; Can Harley recover? Sure. But it won’t be anytime soon- massive debt needs to be unwound, and solutions to revenue need to be solved.

    It’s great you love your Harley, Donna- but there is nothing to love about Harley stock- sorry you don’t like hearing it, but it’s just business. Emotion is for your bike, not for stocks.

    Buying more stock won’t help Harley, Donna- that only helps Harley executives retire; Buy more bikes if you really want to help!

    Warren Buffet bought Harley debt, but he refuses to touch Harley stock- gee, wonder why that is?

  8. 8 Axel Mar 4th, 2010 at 6:01 pm

    Victory’s sales have dropped far more than Harley’s- and they didn’t have even ten percent of Harley’s sales to start with. And I doubt that snowmobile sales- even more of a luxury item than a motorcycle- are going to help Polaris’ stock any.
    Harley is in the same boat everyone else selling almost anything is in whenever a depression hits…… and take my word for it, this IS a depression. Without all the safety nets that were put in place after the first great depression- social security, unemployment insurance, food stamps and so on- things would be far worse. On the other hand those safety nets tend to cover up how bad things really are.
    But Harley has survived every depression and recession so far, and there’s no reason to think they won’t survive this one. So if you’re in a mood to buy stock, buy low. In other words, now.

  9. 9 mike corbin Mar 8th, 2010 at 10:49 am

    Simple Trick, ” Be nice to motorcycle riders ” !

  10. 10 fuji Mar 9th, 2010 at 9:19 am

    Reality is that Polaris Industries are by far a healthier co than Harley Davidson.

  11. 11 fuji Mar 9th, 2010 at 3:49 pm

    Polaris Industries Inc. will distribute $10 million to employees as part of its annual profit-sharing plan, the company announced Friday. dated march 5. 2010

    The Medina-based company’s profit-sharing plan has been in place since 1982. Since then, it has distributed about $200 million to nonsalaried workers.

    This year, about 2,200 employees will receive payments. Each payment is, on average, worth about 15 percent of a worker’s base pay.

    The company’s profit for all of 2009 stood at $101 million, or $3.05 per share.

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Cyril Huze