Harley-Davidson, Polaris, Arctic Cat. Which Company To Invest In?

cyrilhuzechartTalking with my friends about the future of the motorcycle industry, very often the conversation slides to which recreational vehicle company is going to perform the best? It continues to surprise many that in this economic environment, both Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG), Polaris (NYSE: PII) and Arctic Cat also selling snowmobiles, ATV’s & UTV’s (NASDAQ: ACAT) are performing extremely well.

Just look at the chart below. All 3 companies have rewarded its investors handsomely, Polaris more than the others, the stock being up an outstanding 533.3% since 2004 and much more if you bought its stock in 2009 when the US was panicking. Future? Of course, nobody knows for sure… (On top left is each stock last quote as of Friday October 25, 2013.)

Zipper's

10 Responses to “Harley-Davidson, Polaris, Arctic Cat. Which Company To Invest In?”


  1. 1 BobS Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    It’s only surprising to people who believe “this economic environment” is somehow different or worse than just about any other time. Sure, 2009 was a bad year but that was also almost 5 years ago now. There will always be something in the news cycle for someone to complain about so the chicken littles will always think the sky is falling. The rest of us just keep on keepin on and the fact that all three of these manufacturers has done well proves it. Can’t say which company will have the best decade ahead of it but no denying this is a good time to be in the motorcycle or powersports business!

  2. 2 Bruce Reynard Oct 27th, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    I suspect that Cyril wrote this because he invested in 2009… Good for him if it’s the case.

  3. 3 Terence Tory Oct 27th, 2013 at 3:57 pm

    Any chart that has such a rapid rise and angle of attack such as the PII one is venturing into an undeniable zone of turbulence and correction.That’s just basic chart reading techniques in play.

    As reported by Cyril many times here before,the aging demographic of the U.S. motorsport market are skewed against great long term gains.

  4. 4 roscoe Oct 27th, 2013 at 4:56 pm

    I purchased Polaris stock when it was $33.00.

  5. 5 baggerdude Oct 28th, 2013 at 6:36 am

    Bought Polaris at 73 bucks and got out at $ 115 happy to have made a nice chunk of change. Polaris climb is not forever so I’ll stick with my slow but steady H/D block of stock Ive owned for 20 years!

  6. 6 BobS Oct 28th, 2013 at 7:54 am

    Terrence, just a couple points to make here. One the rapid rise and angle of the PII graph is a function of the scale of the graph. I could easily change the scale of the graph and that angle of attack would look much more slow and steady. Second, how do you tell if the turbulence and correction isn’t over already? If a highly profitable company that’s growing in emerging markets is incorrectly undervalued then a fast rise in value would itself be the correction.

  7. 7 Bill Kniegge Oct 28th, 2013 at 8:19 am

    Polaris gets big kudos IMHO… and they haven’t even seen any benefit of the great work they did on the new Indians..
    BlueStrada

  8. 8 Terence Tory Oct 28th, 2013 at 8:58 am

    BobS.Scale and scaling are two different things.Virtually all market charts auto scale to fit in the current times recent up and down moves and this distorts the perception of the real action.Charts are not draw on the same kind of template all the time,so to speak.

    When you say the scale of a chart I think you mean the parameters such a time and values.

    “I could easily change the scale of the graph and that angle of attack would look much more slow and steady” ,with respect that is delusional and allows you the liberty of changing a chart in order to make you “feel better” or fit your current idea of what a short term move is leading to or doing.Yearly charts show the real picture and the further you go down the time scale the more and more you are just reading meaningless “chop”.

    Most corrections tend to go towards an average or a moving average.They don’t tend to go to extreme lower lows or extreme higher highs.This kind of technical chart analysis works with just about all stocks,like all the time.

    If you except the efficient-market hypothesis-EMH,which I do,stocks are priced at what they are really worth at that point in time and correct very quickly when new information comes to hand.

    A stock is rare that continues at the same up angle for a three year period without a period of at least a 25% retracement down of the stock price(however temporary).

    I’m not down on PII at all,but technical chart analysis is technical chart analysis and it works.

    Tens of thousands of minutes and fourteen hour days of staring at charts has taught me a little along the way.

  9. 9 Dave Smith Oct 29th, 2013 at 9:26 am

    There you go Terry – If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance…baffle them with bullshit !

  10. 10 Terence Tory Oct 29th, 2013 at 9:36 am

    Dave Smith,there is minimal if any baffling written there,and zero Bravo Sierra.Most people get dazzled when you open their eyes a little and brilliance is rarely needed to be applied for the effect.

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