Harley-Davidson On A Rebound?

Yesterday Monday April 5, 2010, Harley-Davidson stock (HOG) settled the day up $2.99 to $31.37, its highest level in almost 2 1/2 years. Volume was unusually high (3 times the daily average) and several Wall-Street analysts raised Harley stock target price in the $36 range. Is Harley-Davidson close to a rebound with anticipation that spring and summer selling season is going to be much better than last year? There was a very harsh winter in the US and dealers are expected to have sold between 28,000 and 30,000 bikes for the first three months of this year, most dealers selling new bikes below MSRP,  for a total volume down about 30% from the same period in 2009. The company has had to adjust its cost structure so it can be profitable at a much lower sales level. Consequently some dealers seem worried about a shortage of new models and are looking for used models. For the last 52-week period HOG price is up 86.65%.

Zipper's

14 Responses to “Harley-Davidson On A Rebound?”


  1. 1 Boss Hawg Apr 6th, 2010 at 2:35 pm

    Great news! Sort of like relationships…you may not always like what you have and the ROI on your investment may seem like oh what the hell, but stick with your love and she almost always comes back.

    Instead of tearing HD down here, go out an support them.

    Boss Hawg

  2. 2 Jeffrey Apr 6th, 2010 at 3:21 pm

    Boss Hawg is right. Everybody in the industry should support Harley. Inconditionally.

  3. 3 busfreak Apr 6th, 2010 at 3:35 pm

    Most dealers selling new bikes below MSRP. Those are the key words, if most dealers would just loose the attitude and the idea that there isn’t anything else out there they would do great.

  4. 4 Jeff Nicklus Apr 6th, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    I hope to hell the whole industry is on a rebound. I know our production custom business is improving every day.

    Over & Out,

    Jeff

  5. 5 fuji Apr 6th, 2010 at 6:00 pm

    Looks like the Non Harley dude that’s running the company is doing what has to be done to maintain credibility.

    Unfortunate that many have lost jobs in such a narrow time span but under proper management the reduction in workforce downsizing and elimination of non-essential segments of the company is paying off.

    Drastic measures should have started back as early as 2006 when the market started to shrink. Trying to make Harley survive with large profit margins through their financial arm was a total melt down.

    Much of the blame should be put on the shoulders of the board. who incidentally was recognized as one of the TOP FIVE WORST CORPORATE BOARDS: Freeport McMoRan, Com cast, Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, Harley-Davidson

    Should I be sympathetic towards the Company???? I don’t think so. I have seen their manipulation of the public consumers and their dealers before.

    Getting too long in the tooth for the charades.

    You can count on this….after you give Harley all the support that they ask for and want it will return to business as usual. Saw it happen before and guess what. Just a little wiser

  6. 6 fuji Apr 6th, 2010 at 6:36 pm

    Probably one of the best articles that one can read by “Steve Anderson” is in the May 2010 issue of Cycle World, Page 40 “The Demise of the Buell Motorcycle Company”.

    If there ever were an article to open your eyes, this would be it. Five pages of informative information.

    The article centers on Eric Buell but goes into some depth including an interesting story on the V-Rod,
    the internal politics of the company and what transpired over the past and how Jim Ziemer looked at the company as a whole and how decisions were made plus touching on the thinking of present management, Keith Wandell. A different and interesting way of looking at the Company.

    Best five bucks you will spend. It will make you think a little differantly.

  7. 7 alan Apr 6th, 2010 at 7:19 pm

    good for them
    but can they start to built some bikes again and not any more computers

  8. 8 ian Apr 7th, 2010 at 3:26 am

    Fuji – is that article available online anywhere for non-US readers?
    Thanks

    IAN

  9. 9 fuji Apr 7th, 2010 at 11:02 am

    ian

    I will get this information to you. Please check your e-mail.

  10. 10 The Producer Apr 7th, 2010 at 2:14 pm

    I’m not too sure about the numbers. As a whole the stock market has been rising but many insiders state it won’t be long before another meltdown comes when all the institutional traders remove their profits.

    H-D along with many companies have not done the things that need to be done to make their ships sea worthy for the long haul. I live next to Boeing here in the Pacific Northwest. The amount of bloat due to workers (union) who refuse to put in a good 8 hours worth of work has caused this company to suffer. They have also gone through plenty top tier managers one who now works at Ford.

    I have numerous freinds who work the lines at Boeing and they all admit to how many workers game the system. Ok off topic. But the point is, many old line companies (GM, Chrysler and even H-D) need to rethink their business models. H-D could reduce prices on all bikes to become even more competitive is a start.

    Of course God only knows how much money they make off branded clothing sold to non riders which costs the company nothing, since all these t-shirts are licensed to suppliers who pay for the opportunity to print up and market these shirts to airport stores and the like. (not counting dealer merch)

    The Producer

  11. 11 just my opinion Apr 7th, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    I don’t think reducing the price of the new bikes is the answer. If it were that simple HD would have done it a long time ago. What I do think they need is a CEO that can negotiate low interest loans that could be used to pay off the 15% money that was borrowed and also used to finance new bike sales. They may also need to dump the V-Rod line and some of the CVO models to become more efficient. HD has already taken some drastic steps in the right direction but there may be more cuts coming if the loses don’t turn around next quarter. As for their stock going up that is just a reflection of their cutting so many jobs and shuting down Buell and dumping MV Agusta but don’t be fouled into thinking everything is peachy at HD. Remember they reported a lose of 55 million dollars last year. I hope they can turn it all around and become a strong company once more but I won’t be buying any HD stock anytime soon.

  12. 12 Wack-Town Apr 7th, 2010 at 9:44 pm

    Stock is up cuz folks buying rides for spring…….Don’t hold yer breath guys, the economy is still…….CRAP.

    I hope we all find or have jobs now. We, the people in the industry and the consumers, are still losing jobs left and right……

    Glad HD is looking up but warmer weather is always good for the economy…

    Did someone say over and out?

    W

  13. 13 JG Apr 8th, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    Google Harley Davidson Leveraged Buy Out or Hostile Takeover
    The stock price has nothing to do with the company’s profit or sales right now.

    Just my humble opinion.

  14. 14 Geno Apr 12th, 2010 at 9:28 am

    yea that Buell article in Cycle World is great-
    the rest of the mag is suffering under the new editor
    but that article is a keeper

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